Page 118 - 《中国电力》2026年第4期

第 59 卷 第 4 期 Vol. 59, No. 4
2026 年 4 月 ELECTRIC POWER Apr. 2026

引用格式：李露露, 何姣. 时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率 SBM-Malmquist 模型[J].
中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 114−126.
Citation: LI Lulu, HE Jiao. Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation efficiency from the perspective of time lag
effect: based on a three-stage super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 114−126.

时滞效应视角下中国电力绿色低碳转型效率评估

——基于考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率 SBM-

Malmquist 模型

李露露 ，何姣 2,3
1
(1. 湖南农业大学 商学院，湖南 长沙 410128；2. 湖南理工大学 经济与管理学院，湖南 岳阳 414006；
3. 长沙理工大学 电价研究中心，湖南 长沙 410114)

Assessment of China's power sector green and low-carbon transformation
efficiency from the perspective of time lag effect: based on a three-stage

super-efficiency SBM-Malmquist model considering output lag

1
LI Lulu , HE Jiao 2,3
(1. Business School, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China; 2. School of Economics and Management, Hunan Institute of
Science and Technology, Yueyang 414006, China; 3. Electricity Price Research Center, Changsha University of
Science and Technology, Changsha 410114, China)

Abstract: The green and low-carbon transformation of China's factors leads to an overestimation of the average comprehensive
power sector serves as a crucial underpinning for advancing efficiency of green and low-carbon transformation in the power
Chinese modernization. Taking 30 provinces, autonomous sector. Additionally, the recalibrated actual efficiency level
regions and municipalities directly under the Central demonstrates a spatial distribution pattern of West ＞ East ＞
Government of China from 2015 to 2023 as the research Central, with notable inter-provincial differences. The total
sample, this paper employs a three-stage super-efficiency SBM- factor productivity (TFP) of the power sector's green and low-
Malmquist index model that accounts for output lags to carbon transformation exhibits a fluctuating trend, and the
measure the efficiency of the green and low-carbon pulling effect of technological advancements has mitigated the
transformation of the power sector. The findings reveal that, negative constraints caused by low technical efficiency.
based on the revised analysis of power output considering the This work is supported by the Youth Program of the National
time lag effect, the lag periods of renewable energy power Social Science Foundation of China (No.22CJY064) and the
consumption and the proportion of electricity in terminal energy Social Science Achievement Review Committee Program of
consumption are 1 period and 3 periods respectively. Energy Hunan Province (No.XSP22YBZ071).
pricing mechanism refinement and urbanization progression Keywords: green and low-carbon transformation; time lag
have exerted a significant positive driving effect on the green effect; three-stage super-efficiency SBM; Malmquist index
and low-carbon transformation of the electric power sector,
with their beneficial impacts substantially outweighing the 摘 要：电力绿色低碳转型是助力中国式现代化发展的
negative inhibitory effects stemming from economic 重 要 支 撑 。 以 2015 —2023 年 中 国 30 个 省 级 行 政 区 为 研
development stages and industrial structure. The external 究样本，采用考虑产出滞后的三阶段超效率数据包络分
析 法 （ slacks-based measure， SBM） -Malmquist 指 数 模 型 测
收稿日期：2025−08−12； 修回日期：2026−02−10。
度电力绿色低碳转型效率。研究发现，基于考虑时滞效
基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年资助项目（22CJY064）； 应 的 电 力 产 出 修 正 分 析 测 算 ， 可 再 生 能 源 电 力 消 纳 量 、
湖南省社会科学成果评审委员会资助项目（XSP22YBZ071）。 电能占终端能源消费比重滞后期分别为 1 期和 3 期。能源

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