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TaggedAPTARAEndPA and mortality in type 2 diabetes                                                    215
           CVD, cancer, or other major comorbidities at study baseline  recommendations were 0.80 (95%CI: 0.581.11) and 0.69
           were included. During a median follow-up of 12.4 and  (95%CI: 0.480.97) in the UK Biobank and 1.06 (95%CI:
           9.7 years after baseline, 1571 and 2351 deaths (392 and 1060  0.761.47) and 0.79 (95%CI: 0.690.92) in the China
           deaths from CVD) and 2345 and 4458 major adverse cardio-  Kadoorie Biobank. PA at recommended levels was not associ-
           vascular events were included from the UK Biobank and  ated with cardiovascular mortality in the China Kadoorie
           China Kadoorie Biobank, respectively. The age of participants  Biobank. There was no association between leisure-time PA
           was similar, at 59.5 § 7.2 years and 57.8 § 9.7 years (mean §  below or at recommended levels and risk of major adverse
           SD), but the distributions of sex, BMI, leisure-time PA,  cardiovascular events in either cohort (Table 2). Doing more
           diabetes duration, use of preventive medications, and the  than 35 MET-h/week yielded HRs from 0.87 (95%CI:
           proportion of undiagnosed diabetes were different. More than  0.770.99) to 0.82 (95%CI: 0.710.96) in the UK Biobank.TaggedAPTARAEnd
           half of Chinese participants did no PA in their leisure-time
           while this was the case for only 9% of British participants. The
                                                                 TaggedAPTARAH23.3. Stratified and sensitivity analysesTaggedAPTARAEnd
           mean differences in BMI between participants with no PA and
                                                   2
           those exceeding recommendations was 3.4 kg/m in the UK  TaggedAPTARAPAdditional adjustment for pharmacological treatment
                                 2
           Biobank but only 0.2 kg/m in the China Kadoorie Biobank.  slightly attenuated associations in the UK Biobank (Model 4).
           More physically active participants had completed more  Stratified associations with all-cause mortality are shown in
           formal schooling in both cohorts. Descriptive characteristics  Fig. 2. Age modified the association in the China Kadoorie
           across categories of MET-h/week are presented in Table 1 and  Biobank, with an HR for PA exceeding recommendations of
           in greater detail in Supplementary Tables 4 and 5 of Supple-  0.95 (95%CI: 0.781.14) among adults <60 years old and
           mentary File 1. Distributions of leisure-time PA among cases  0.72 (95%CI: 0.640.81) among those 60 years old (p for
           and in all participants are shown in Supplementary Fig. 2 of  interaction < 0.001). There was no evidence of effect modifi-
                                                                 cation by pre-existence of cardiovascular morbidity (effect
           Supplementary File 1.TaggedAPTARAEnd
                                                                 modification p values 0.97 and 0.79).TaggedAPTARAEnd
                                                                   TaggedAPTARAPThe pattern of results did not change with exclusion of ever
           TaggedAPTARAH23.1. Leisure-time PA and all-cause mortalityTaggedAPTARAEnd
                                                                 smokers and exclusion of individuals with low certainty of
             TaggedAPTARAPHigher levels of leisure-time PA were associated with lower  type 2 diabetes (Supplementary Table 7 of Supplementary File 1).
           all-cause mortality in both cohorts (Table 2). Statistical adjust-  There was no association between leisure-time PA and
           ment for BMI attenuated associations in the UK Biobank but  mortality in 5857 British adults who performed at least a
           did not impact effect sizes in the China Kadoorie Biobank. In  single 24-h dietary recall. Descriptive characteristics of adults
           the UK Biobank, the slope of the doseresponse association  with active transportation or occupations are shown in Supple-
           was shallow below 15 MET-h/week, accelerated thereafter,  mentary Tables 8 and 9 of Supplementary File 1; their associa-
           and reached statistical significance at 35 MET-h/week, which  tions with outcomes are presented in Supplementary Tables 10
           is equivalent to 90 min of walking or 38 min of strenuous
                                                                 and 11 of Supplementary File 1.TaggedAPTARAEnd
           sports per day (Fig. 1, p for non-linearity = 0.51). No upper
           level of additional risk reduction was observed within the
                                                                 TaggedAPTARAH14. DiscussionTaggedAPTARAEnd
           exposure distribution. In categorical analyses, PA below
           recommendations, compared with no activity, was associated  TaggedAPTARAPThe main finding was that PA below and at contemporary
           with a slight and uncertain reduction in all-cause mortality,  recommendations was associated with lower all-cause and
           with an HR of 0.94 (95%CI: 0.791.12). The doseresponse  cardiovascular mortality in British and Chinese adults with
           association in China Kadoorie Biobank suggested a curvilinear  type 2 diabetes, but these reductions were uncertain and incon-
           relationship (p = 0.03), with lower mortality for any non-zero  sistent across cohorts. There was no association between PA
           level of leisure-time PA and no additional risk reduction above  and risk of major adverse cardiovascular events in the China
           35 MET-h/week. The HR for PA below recommendations was  Kadoorie Biobank, and activity equivalent to 90 min of
           0.87 (95%CI: 0.681.10). The absolute differences in 10-year  walking or 38 min of strenuous sports per day, which far
           cumulative mortality, compared with no activity, were 0.2%,  exceeds the WHO recommended level, was needed to lower
           0.4%, and 0.6% in the UK Biobank and 1.4%, 1.3%,  the risk in the UK Biobank.TaggedAPTARAEnd
           and 1.6% in the China Kadoorie Biobank for PA below, at,
           and exceeding recommendations (Supplementary Table 6 of  TaggedAPTARAH24.1. Comparison with other studiesTaggedAPTARAEnd
           Supplementary File 1).TaggedAPTARAEnd
                                                                   TaggedAPTARAPPrevious meta-analyses of the doseresponse association
                                                                 between PA and mortality in adults with type 2 diabetes have
           TaggedAPTARAH23.2. Leisure-time PA and cardiovascular mortality and major
                                                                 been  inconclusive.  One  suggested  a  weak,  linear
           adverse cardiovascular eventsTaggedAPTARAEnd                                12
                                                                 doseresponse association  while the other provided some
             TaggedAPTARAPContinuous doseresponse curves were supportive of a  support for a curvilinear pattern, with a steeper gradient at low
           linear relationship with cardiovascular mortality in both  activity and diminishing returns at higher levels of activity. 14
           cohorts (p  0.67) with a steeper slope in the UK Biobank.  None of these meta-analyses provided estimates directly appli-
           There was no upper threshold of additional risk reduction in  cable to the WHO’s quantitative recommendations of
                                                                                                           5
           either  cohort.  The  HRs  for  PA  below  and  above  150300 min of moderate-to-vigorous PA/week, and the
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