Page 247 - 《高原气象》2023年第1期

1 期 王 宏等：基于SSPs路径下植被气候生产潜力的预测——以陕甘宁为例 243

Prediction of Climatic Productivity of Vegetation Based on SSPs Path

——A Case Study of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia

WANG Hong， YANG Dong， LAN Xiaoyu， FENG Xiuyan， YANG Yanpeng
（College of Geography and Enviromental Science， Northwest Normal University， Lanzhou 730070， Gansu， China）

Abstract： The natural environment of the three provinces and regions of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia is com‐
plex and diverse. The ecological environment is fragile， and is sensitive to climate change. In the background of
global climate change， the study on the climate production potential of vegetation plays a positive role in the pro‐
duction distribution and ecosystem management of agriculture， forestry and animal husbandry in this region.
This paper selects the simulated data of temperature and precipitation of SSP126， SSP245 and SSP585 in the
BCC-CSM2-MR model of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia from 2025 to 2100， and uses the Thornthwaite Memori‐
al model to calculate the change characteristics and driving mechanism of the future vegetation climate produc‐
tion potential in the study area. The results show that most areas of Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province maintain the
climatic characteristics of "warm and humid" development in the historical period from 2025 to 2100. Compared
to the base period， the increment of vegetation climatic productivity potential was concentrated in 10%~40%
（SSP126）， 10%~30% （SSP245） and 10%~56. 1% （SSP585）， respectively. The vegetation climate production
potential in northern Shaanxi shows a downward trend under the SSP126 path， while the vegetation climate pro‐
duction potential in Shaanxi shows an increasing trend under the SSP245 and SSP585 paths， and the increasing
trend is the strongest in northern Shaanxi. In Shaanxi Province， compared with the base period in most areas un‐
der the SSP126 and SSP245 paths increased by 5%~10%， and that under the SSP585 path increased by 10%~
20%. The climate of Ningxia Hui Autonomous region develops to "warm and dry type" under SSP126 path， and
the vegetation climate production potential in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region shows a downward trend. On the
contrary， the climatic production potential of vegetation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous region increases significant‐
ly under SSP245 and SSP585 path. The anomaly of vegetation climate production potential in the whole region
increased by 10%~30% under the SSP585 path and 0~20% under the SSP245 path. From the point of view of the
driving mechanism， there are two driving types of vegetation climate production potential in the three provinces
of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia， which are "precipitation-driven" and "temperature-precipitation-driven". The
vegetation climate production potential in the study area is driven by precipitation， which is the main driving
force of vegetation climate production potential.
Key words： Climate production potential of vegetation； Shared Socioeconomic Pathways （SSPs）； climate
change； three provinces and regions of Shaanxi， Gansu and Ningxia