Page 87 - 《真空与低温》2025年第5期

真空与低温 第 31 卷 第 5 期
626 Vacuum and Cryogenics 2025 年 9 月

基 于 非 齐 次 泊 松 过 程 的 离 子 推 力 器 可 靠 性 分 析

李 婧，贾艳辉 ，陈娟娟，孟 伟
*
（兰州空间技术物理研究所 真空技术与物理重点实验室，兰州 730000）

摘要：离子推力器工作过程中的非预期电击穿在达到冲击阈值时会影响其服役可靠性。在收集 LIPS-200
离子推力器地面试验非预期电击穿故障数据的基础上，基于随机过程理论，采用非齐次泊松过程建立离子推力器
非预期电击穿的故障数学模型，并在束流中断和束流未中断情形下分别进行模型的参数估计。根据 AD 检验结果，
束流中断情形下离子推力器的故障强度满足威布尔（Weibull）分布，束流未中断情形下离子推力器的故障强度满
足浴盆曲线；然后，利用故障强度函数推导其瞬时平均故障间隔时间和累积平均故障间隔时间以表征指定服役时
长下的离子推力器可靠性水平；最后，基于 K 折交叉验证检验了两种情形下故障分布模型的鲁棒性。上述研究结
果可为进一步提升离子推力器的可靠性以及优化设计提供参考，且研究过程中涉及的模型拟合、假设检验以及交
叉验证等方法可推广至具有相同数据特征的产品。
关键词：离子推力器；非齐次泊松过程；非预期电击穿；故障强度
中图分类号：TB71；V439 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1006−7086（2025）05−0626−05
DOI：10.12446/j.issn.1006-7086.2025.05.011

Reliability Analysis of Ion Thruster Based on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process

*
LI Jing，JIA Yanhui ，CHEN Juanjuan，MENG Wei
（Science and Technology on Vacuum Technology and Physics Laboratory，
Lanzhou Institute of Physics，Lanzhou 730000，China）

Abstract：The unexpected electric breakdown during the operation of the ion thruster will affect its service reliability
when it reaches the impact threshold. That is to say，these unexpected electric breakdowns sometimes cause the beam current
of the ion thruster to be interrupted，and sometimes not，depending on the location，frequency and intensity of the unexpected
electrical breakdown. On the premise of collecting the fault data of the unexpected electric breakdown in the ground test of
the LIPS-200 ion thruster，based on the random process theory，a mathematical model of the unexpected electric breakdown
of the ion thruster was established by using the non-homogeneous Poisson process，and the parameter estimation of the mod-
el was carried out in the case of interrupted beam current and uninterrupted beam current respectively. According to the AD
test results，the failure intensity of the ion thruster satisfies the Weibull distribution when the beam is interrupted，and the fail-
ure intensity of the ion thruster satisfies the bathtub curve when the beam is not interrupted. Then，the instantaneous mean
time between failures and cumulative mean time between failures were derived from the failure intensity function to charac-
terize the reliability level of the ion thruster under the specified service time. Finally，the robustness of the failure intensity
distribution model in two cases was tested based on K-fold cross validation. The results show that the parameter confidence
intervals of cross-validation in the two cases are basically coincident，and the model has good stability. The above research
results can provide a reference for further improving the reliability and optimization design of ion thrusters，and the methods
of model fitting，hypothesis testing and cross-validation involved in the research process can be extended to products with the
same data characteristics.
Key words：ion thruster；non-homogeneous Poisson process；unexpected electric breakdown；failure intensity

收稿日期：2025−04−29
基金项目：国家自然科学基金（62371213）
作者简介：李婧，工学硕士，工程师。E-mail：lijing171118@126.com
通信作者：贾艳辉，博士，研究员。E-mail：jiayh510@163.com