Page 13 - 《中国电力》2026年第5期

第 59 卷 第 5 期 Vol. 59, No. 5
2026 年 5 月 ELECTRIC POWER May 2026

引用格式：苑曙光, 赵小溪, 王华卿, 等. 容量电价机制作用下煤电项目亏损风险区域识别研究[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(5): 9−19.
Citation: YUAN Shuguang, ZHAO Xiaoxi, WANG Huaqing, et al. Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the capacity
price mechanism[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(5): 9−19.

容量电价机制作用下煤电项目亏损风险区域识别研究

苑曙光 ，赵小溪 ，王华卿 ，刘键烨 3
1,2
1
1,2
(1. 内蒙古工业大学 经济管理学院，内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051；2. 内蒙古能源战略研究中心，
内蒙古 呼和浩特 010051；3. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209)

Identification of loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects under the
capacity price mechanism

1,2
1,2
1
YUAN Shuguang , ZHAO Xiaoxi , WANG Huaqing , LIU Jianye 3
(1. School of Economics and Management, Mongolia University of Technology, Hohhot 010051, China; 2. Mongolia Energy Strategy
Research Center, Hohhot 010051, China; 3. State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China)

Abstract: Guided by the capacity price policy, it is of great attention. The research results can provide theoretical support
significance for building a clean, safe, economical and flexible for the formulation of regional coal-fired power prices and also
new power system to optimize the market-oriented mechanism serve as a decision-making basis for the market-oriented reform
of coal-fired power projects on the basis of fully evaluating the of coal-fired power.
loss-risk zones of coal-fired power projects in various regions. This work is supported byInner Mongolia Autonomous Region
Taking three typical coal-fired power units as research objects, Social Science Foundation Project (No.2024EY35), Natural
this paper proposes an improved coal-fired power regional Science Foundation Project of Mongolia University of Tech-
levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) model by introducing the nology (No.ZZ202110), Ph.D. Initiation Fund Project of
concept of equivalent units, so as to calculate and compare the Mongolia University of Technology (No.BS2021041).
LCOE of provincial coal-fired power units before and after the Keywords: coal-fired power; capacity price; regional LCOE;
introduction of capacity price. On this basis, an investment return on investment; risk
return rate model for coal-fired power units is constructed, and
the return-risk zones of regional coal-fired power units are 摘 要：基于容量电价政策导向，在充分评价各区域煤
calculated according to the current on-grid electricity price 电项目亏损风险区域的基础上优化煤电项目的市场化机
combined with the capacity price policy. The results show that 制，对构建清洁、安全、经济、灵活的新型电力系统具有
the introduction of the capacity price mechanism has exerted a 重要意义。本文以 3 类典型煤电机组为研究对象，引入等
significant impact on the regional LCOE of coal-fired power, 效机组概念提出改进区域煤电平准化度电成本（levelized
driving an overall declines in this cost level. Meanwhile, the cost of electricity，LCOE）模型，测算并比较引入容量电价
average return range of regional coal-fired power units has been 前后省域煤电机组度电成本。在此基础上，设计煤电机
adjusted upward. Notably, the return levels of coal-fired power 组投资收益率模型，依据现行上网电价并结合容量电价
projects in western and northeastern China remain relatively 政 策 识 别 区 域 煤 电 机 组 的 收 益 — 风 险 区 域 。 结 果 显 示 ：
low, indicating that such projects still face the possibility of 容量电价机制引入后，对区域煤电平准化发电成本产生
losses during operation and their operational risks require 了显著影响，推动该成本水平整体下降；与此同时，区
域 煤 电 机 组 的 平 均 收 益 区 间 向 上 调 整 。 值 得 注 意 的 是 ，
收稿日期：2024−10−28； 修回日期：2025−01−21。
西部与东北地区的煤电项目收益水平仍较低，这表明此
基金项目：内蒙古自治区社会科学基金资助项目（2024EY35）； 类项目在运营过程中仍面临亏损可能性，需对其经营风
内蒙古工业大学科研启动金项目（BS2025028）；内蒙古 险予以关注。研究结果可为区域煤电价格制定提供理论
自治区研究生科研创新项目（KC2024039S）。 支撑，同时也为煤电市场化改革提供决策依据。

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