Page 16 - 《中国电力》2026年第4期

第 59 卷 第 4 期 Vol. 59, No. 4
2026 年 4 月 ELECTRIC POWER Apr. 2026

引用格式：米熠, 徐雪松, 杨一鸣, 等. 基于非参数核密度估计的风光水火储系统灵活性评估方法研究[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4): 12−23.
Citation: MI Yi, XU Xuesong, YANG Yiming, et al. Nonparametric kernel density estimation based wind-solar-hydro-thermal-storage system
operational flexibility evaluation[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 12−23.

基于非参数核密度估计的风光水火储

系统灵活性评估方法研究

米熠 ，徐雪松 ，杨一鸣 ，邹鑫 2
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(1. 国网经济技术研究院有限公司，北京 102209；
2. 华北电力大学 经济管理系，河北 保定 071003)

Nonparametric kernel density estimation based wind-solar-hydro-thermal-
storage system operational flexibility evaluation

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MI Yi , XU Xuesong , YANG Yiming , ZOU Xin 2
(1. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China; 2. Department of Economic Management,
North China Electric Power University, Baoding 071003, China)

Abstract: With the rising penetration of new energy, configuration significantly enhances regulation capacity,
uncertainties on both generation and load sides pose significant reducing the loss of load probability (LOLP) and new energy
risks to power system stability. To scientifically assess the curtailment probability by 8.6% and 34.1%, respectively.
flexibility of a novel multi-source coupled power system This work is supported by the National Social Science
(integrating wind, solar, thermal, hydro and energy storage), a Foundation of China (No.23BGL024).
collaborative analysis framework is proposed, combining Keywords: equivalent power function method; reservoir-type
interval estimation of bilateral generation-load uncertainties hydropower; nonparametric kernel density estimation; flexi-
with stochastic production simulation. First, non-parametric bility evaluation; new-type power system
kernel density estimation generates confidence intervals for
new energy output and load, and extreme supply-demand 摘 要：随着新能源渗透率持续提升，源荷双侧不确定
scenarios are constructed to quantify such uncertainties. Second, 性对电力系统稳定运行构成显著风险。为科学评估风光
via a hierarchical dispatching strategy, wind, photovoltaic and 水火储多源耦合新型电力系统的灵活性，提出融合源荷
run-of-river hydropower are prioritized as equivalent negative 双 侧 不 确 定 性 区 间 估 计 与 随 机 生 产 模 拟 的 协 同 分 析 框
loads. Considering system ramping constraints, an improved 架。首先，通过非参数核密度估计生成新能源出力与负
stochastic production simulation algorithm schedules thermal 荷的置信区间，构建极端供需情景以量化不确定性。其
power unit output. Finally, reservoir-type hydropower under- 次，结合分级调度策略，优先将风电、光伏和径流式水
takes remaining system load. In case of load shedding or new 电等效为负值负荷，再考虑系统爬坡约束，利用改进的
energy curtailment, energy storage devices regulate the system 随机生产模拟算法安排火电机组出力。最后，调度库容
through charging and discharging. Case studies show non- 式水电承接系统剩余负荷。当发生切负荷或弃新能源事
parametric estimation effectively characterizes bilateral 件 时 ， 通 过 储 能 设 备 充 放 电 进 行 调 节 。 案 例 分 析 表 明 ，
generation-load uncertainties. The proportions of load shedding 非参数估计可有效表征源荷双侧不确定性；系统因爬坡
and new energy curtailment due to insufficient system ramping 能力不足引发的切负荷和弃新能源电量占比分别为 14.8%
capacity are 14.8% and 91.5%, respectively, indicating ramping 和 91.5%，即爬坡约束是影响系统稳定运行的重要因素；
constraints are critical to system stability. Energy storage 配置储能可显著提升系统调节能力，使系统失负荷概率
和弃新能源概率分别降低 8.6% 和 34.1%。
关键词：等效电量函数法；库容式水电；非参数核密度
收稿日期：2025−08−25； 修回日期：2026−01−15。 估计；灵活性评估；新型电力系统
基金项目：国家社会科学基金资助项目（23BGL024）。 DOI：10.11930/j.issn.1004-9649.202508057

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