Page 115 - 《水产学报》2026年第04期

4 期 水 产 学 报 50 卷

Quota assessment of Nemipterus virgatus in
the Northern South China Sea based on catch survey data

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1,2
3
FENG Bo , CHEN Wenyang , WANG Feng , LI Zhonglu 1,2*
(1. College of Fisheries, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China;
2. Guangdong Provincial Far Sea Fisheries Management and Fishing Engineering Technical Research Center,
Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China;
3. College of Electronics and Information Engineering, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China)

Abstract: The allowable catch of Nemipteridae family in the northern South China Sea has been assessed, but management
parameters for specific species are lacking. It is necessary to conduct a quota evaluation of Nemipterus virgatus to obtain more
practical reference points for output control. Applying the CMSY++ approach, we analyzed the catch time series of N. virgatus
reconstructed from stratified sampling survey data together with sixteen catch-per-unit-effort time series (CPUE). CMSY and
BSM models were run to estimate biological reference points such as carrying capacity k, resilience r, catchability coefficient q,
and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Residual analysis was conducted to verify the applicability of CPUE datasets. Repres-
entative CPUE datasets were selected, the exploitation status of N. virgatus across different fishing methods was compared
based on the trends of B/B MSY and F/F MSY , and the overall exploitation status of N. virgatus in 2023 was evaluated using the
Kobe plot. The resilience r of N. virgatus in the northern South China Sea was estimated at 0.79-0.89, carrying capacity k at
−3
−3
704.47-817.20 thousand tons, the catchability coefficient at 0.03×10 -2.63×10 ，and MSY at 151.66-164.71 thousand tons.
The three CPUE datasets were identified as unsuitable for CMSY++ analysis through runs test of residuals and outlier dia-
gnosis of residuals. Three B/B MSY and F/F MSY trajectories were similar from 2008 to 2018 that represented trawl, gillnet, and
longline fisheries respectively. The B/B MSY curve for gillnets began to recover in 2019 and rose above the safe level of 1.0 by
2022, whereas the corresponding curves for the other two gear types remained below 1.0. The F/F MSY for gillnets dropped
markedly after 2019 and fell below 1.0, while the F/F MSY ratios for the other two gear types stayed above 1.0. Based on the risk
probability indicated by the Kobe plot, the N. virgatus stock was considered to be overfished in 2023. A total allowable catch
(TAC) of 132 thousand tons is recommended for the current stage. Statistical analysis based on catch surveys enables the under-
standing of stock exploitation status from multiple perspectives, and the design and long-term implementation of a sound catch
survey program, along with the acquisition of accurate fishery production data derived therefrom, will contribute to the stock
assessment and management of mixed fisheries.
Key words: Nemipterus virgatus; fishing quota; CMSY++; the northern South China Sea

Corresponding author: LI Zhonglu. E-mail: lizhonglu@gdou.edu.cn
Funding projects: National Key R & D Program of China (2024YFD2400403); Guangdong Provincial Far Sea Fisheries Man-
agement and Fishing Engineering Technical Research Center Matching Fund; Tropical Ocean Environment in Western Coastal
Waters Observation and Research Station of Guangdong Province (2024B1212040008)

https://www.china-fishery.cn 中国水产学会主办 sponsored by China Society of Fisheries
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