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2 期 郭灏贤，等：基于 LIME 模型的海州湾小眼绿鳍鱼资源评估 50 卷

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Stock assessment of Chelidonichthys spinosus in Haizhou Bay based on
the Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects (LIME) model

1,2
1,2
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GUO Haoxian , WANG Kun , XIE Xianxu , ZHANG Chongliang 1,2,4*
(1. Fisheries College, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266003, China;
2. Field Observation and Research Station of Haizhou Bay Fishery Ecosystem,
Ministry of Education, Qingdao 266003, China;
3. Qingdao Port International Co., Ltd., Qingdao 266011, China;
4. Laboratory for Marine Fisheries Science and Food Production Processes,
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao 266237, China)

Abstract: Driven by environmental changes and fishing pressure, the stock status of Chelidonichthys spinosus has changed sig-
nificantly in Haizhou Bay in recent years. However, due to the lack of data such as yields and fishing efforts, stock assessments
are challenging for this species and the status of fishery exploitation remains unclear. In this study, we used length-frequency
data obtained from the fishery surveys in Haizhou Bay from 2013 to 2023 to assess the stock status of C. spinosus using the
Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects (LIME) model which is based on non-equilibrium assumptions. The uncertainty of the
LIME model was further considered, and sensitivity analyses were conducted on parameters such as the steepness (h) in the
stock-recruitment relationship, the natural mortality coefficient (M), and the length of the time series data. The results showed
that the fishing mortality coefficients of C. spinosus were relatively high (F = 2.09 - 2.72) in Haizhou Bay from 2013 to 2023,
significantly exceeding the biological reference point F 30 = 0.81. Recruitment of C. spinosus showed a fluctuating and declin-
ing trend, with the spawning potential ratio (SPR) ranged from 0.106 to 0.129, indicating that the stock was heavily overfished.
The sensitivity analysis showed that the natural mortality coefficient (M) had a significant impact on the assessment results,
while the impact of the steepness (h) was relatively small. The length of the time series had a significant effect on the estima-
tion results of LIME, with a greater impact on the bias of F than on SPR. We highlight that LIME is capable to assess the stock
status based on length-frequency data and is suitable for data-limited fisheries; however, it is sensitive to parameters such as
natural mortality, and caution should be taken when the model is implemented in practice, regarding the estimation of critical
parameters, the life history characteristics of target species, and the feasibility of survey data.
Key words: Chelidonichthys spinosus; stock assessment; Length-based Integrated Mixed Effects (LIME) model; spawning
potential ratio (SPR); sensitivity analysis
Corresponding author: ZHANG Chongliang. E-mail: zhangclg@ouc.edu.cn
Funding projects: National Key Research and Development Program of China (2022YFD2401301)

中国水产学会主办 sponsored by China Society of Fisheries https://www.china-fishery.cn
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