Page 257 - 《高原气象》2026年第2期

2 期 范志勇等：1979-2023年雅鲁藏布江流域风光资源时空特征研究 557

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Wind and Solar Resource in
the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1979 to 2023

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FAN Zhiyong 1， 2， 3 ， WU Chuandong ， YANG Dawen ， TANG Lihua ， ZHANG Yi ， YANG Kun 4
（1. Department of Hydraulic Engineering， Tsinghua University， Beijing 100084， China；
2. State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering， Tsinghua University， Beijing， 100084， China；
3. Huaneng Tibet Yarlung Zangbo River Hydropower Development and Investment Co. ， Ltd. ， Lhasa 850000， Xizang， China；
4. Department of Earth System Science， Tsinghua University， Beijing 100084， China）

Abstract： The large-scale development and utilization of wind and solar power are critical for achieving power
system decarbonization and "Dual Carbon" （carbon peak and carbon neutrality） goals. While northern China
boasts abundant wind-solar resources， the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin （YZRB） presents a uniquely advanta‐
geous setting for large-scale renewable energy base construction. Its exceptionally rich hydropower potential pro‐
vides a vital foundation of flexible generation capacity and a vast， natural storage medium through reservoir regu‐
lation， significantly enhancing the economic viability of integrating variable wind and solar power compared to
regions reliant solely on complementary generation or artificial storage. However， the inherent variability， inter‐
mittency， and uncertainty of wind and solar power pose substantial challenges to the structural transformation of
power systems， impacting grid stability and dispatch optimization. To accurately characterize the resource poten‐
tial within this strategic basin， this study conducts a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of wind and solar re‐
sources across the YZRB. This study utilizes the high-resolution near-surface meteorological forcing dataset for
the Third Pole region （TPMFD）， offering long-term （1979 -2023）， high spatiotemporal resolution surface me‐
teorological data essential for detailed assessment. Analysis reveals a distinct "higher in the west， lower in the
east" spatial pattern for both wind speed and solar radiation intensity across the basin. Crucially， temporal trend
analysis identifies a complex， two-phase evolution over the 45-year period （1979 -2023）， characterized by sig‐
nificant trend reversals. Wind speed exhibited a pronounced declining trend from 1979 to 2006， followed by a
robust increasing trend from 2007 to 2023. Conversely， solar radiation showed a significant increasing trend be‐
tween 1979 and 2009， which reversed into a clear decreasing trend from 2010 to 2023. This non-stationarity in
resource availability has profound implications for long-term energy project planning and performance modeling.
Spatial analysis further identifies Lhasa City， Shannan City， and Shigatse City as possessing superior wind and
solar resource endowments relative to other basin areas. These regions are thus highlighted as optimal core zones
for deploying future integrated hydro-wind-solar （HWS） complementary system， where hydropower's inherent
flexibility can effectively balance wind-solar variability， maximizing system efficiency， reliability， and eco‐
nomic returns. This study underscores the significant potential of the YZRB for large-scale， low-carbon energy
systems based on HWS integration. Realizing this potential necessitates focused research addressing key uncer‐
tainties. Future work must prioritize： （1） Advanced projection and analysis of future wind-solar resource trends
under evolving climate scenarios to inform resilient infrastructure planning； （2） Detailed assessment of the fre‐
quency， intensity， and duration of compound wind-solar extreme events （e. g. ， concurrent low-wind and low-
sunlight periods）， which represent major risks to system security； and （3） Development and application of
sophisticated integrated optimization models for the holistic configuration， scheduling， and dispatch of HWS
resources across the basin and their integration with the wider grid. Addressing these research imperatives is
essential for unlocking the YZRB's full potential to contribute significantly to China's energy transition and global
decarbonization objectives.
Key words： Yarlung Zangbo River Basin； wind speed； radiation； spatiotemporal characteristics