Page 28 - 《中国电力》2026年第4期

第 59 卷 第 4 期 Vol. 59, No. 4
2026 年 4 月 ELECTRIC POWER Apr. 2026

引用格式：陆建宇, 张凯旋, 李建华, 等. 考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法[J]. 中国电力, 2026, 59(4):
24−34.
Citation: LU Jianyu, ZHANG Kaixuan, LI Jianhua, et al. Medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind–solar–hydro–thermal multi-energy
complementary regional power system considering wind and solar power uncertainties[J]. Electric Power, 2026, 59(4): 24−34.

考虑风光发电不确定性的风光水火多能互补

区域电网中期优化调度方法

陆建宇 ，张凯旋 ，李建华 ，王月 ，周毅 ，申建建 2
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(1. 国家电网有限公司华东分部，上海 200120；2. 大连理工大学 建设工程学院，辽宁 大连 116024)
Medium-term optimal dispatching method for wind–solar–hydro–thermal
multi-energy complementary regional power system considering wind

and solar power uncertainties
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LU Jianyu , ZHANG Kaixuan , LI Jianhua , WANG Yue , ZHOU Yi , SHEN Jianjian 2
(1. East China Branch of State Grid Corporation of China, Shanghai 200120, China; 2. School of Infrastructure Engineering, Dalian
University of Technology, Dalian 116024, China)

Abstract: Under the high penetration of new energy sources, objective, thus achieving efficient solution. Simulation
the stable operation of the power grids over multiple scheduling based on the actual data of East China Power Grid
consecutive days is increasingly affected by the volatility and shows that, compared with conventional methods, the proposed
uncertainty of large-scale wind and solar power output during method can reduce the overall power shortage of the system by
the daytime, which exacerbates the difficulty of power supply more than 33.3%, while ensuring high reliability of grid
guarantee. This paper proposes a medium-term optimal dispatching plans. The daily maximum power shortage/
dispatching method for wind-solar-hydro-thermal multi-energy curtailment only accounts for 1.3% and 1.7% of the load,
complementary regional power grids considering the respectively, which provides an effective approach for the
uncertainty of wind and solar power generation. The covariance formulation of multi-day consecutive dispatching plans of
matrix is adopted to characterize the time-varying charac- power grids under high renewable energy penetration.
teristics of the wind and solar power generation prediction This work is supported by Science and Technology Project of
errors, and the hybrid Gaussian sampling is integrated to East China Branch of SGCC (No.52992424001V).
generate the scenario set of wind and solar power output. Keywords: time-varying characteristics; regional power grid;
Meanwhile, a conditional sampling strategy is utilized to retain medium-term dispatching; hierarchical weight optimization
the statistical characteristics of the prediction errors while method
reasonably reducing the number of scenarios. With the
objectives of minimizing the sum of squares of grid-wide power 摘 要：新能源高渗透率下，电网连续多日的安全稳定
shortage and curtailment as well as minimizing the thermal 运行受大规模风光日间出力的波动性及不确定性影响日
power operating cost, a multi-objective optimization model for 益显著，保供难度加剧。提出考虑风光发电不确定性的
wind-PV-hydro-thermal complementary operation is establi- 风光水火多能互补区域电网中期优化调度方法，采用协
shed. A hierarchical weight optimization method is proposed to 方差矩阵表征风光发电预测误差的时变特性，融合混合
balance the target priorities and the relative importance of each 高斯抽样生成风光出力场景集，利用条件抽样策略保留
预测误差统计特性并合理缩减场景；以全网缺电与弃电
收稿日期：2025−06−30； 修回日期：2026−02−02。 平方和最小、火电运行成本最小为目标，构建了风光水
基金项目：国家电网有限公司华东分部科技项目（5299242 火互补运行多目标优化模型，提出分层权重优化方法兼
4001V）。 顾 目 标 优 先 级 和 各 目 标 相 对 重 要 性 ， 实 现 了 高 效 求 解 。

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