Page 224 - 《水产学报》2025年第5期

伍大清，等 水产学报, 2025, 49(5): 059618

Decoupling relationship and driving factors between carbon emissions and
economic growth in China's freshwater aquaculture industry:
based on Tapio decoupling and LMDI model

1,2*
WU Daqing , LIU Lichen 1,2
1. School of Economics and Management, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China;
2. Strategic Research and Development Center of China Fisheries, Shanghai Ocean University, Shanghai 201306, China

Abstract: A series of chain reactions, such as global warming, rising sea levels, endangered species, and oxygen depletion,
have caused serious damage to ecosystems and posed tremendous challenges to the survival of humans and other living organ-
isms. Consequently, the task of reducing global carbon emissions has become imperative and urgent. In response, China
demonstrated its firm determination in 2020 by committing to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. As
climate change and environmental pollution issues become increasingly prominent, the need for China to reduce carbon emis-
sions and achieve low-carbon, green, and sustainable development has become more critical. Freshwater aquaculture, as an
important production activity, has attracted widespread attention due to its carbon emissions. Under the influence of scientific
and technological progress and policy guidance, China has begun to explore a decoupling path for the freshwater aquaculture
industry, aiming to separate economic growth from carbon emissions and seek a sustainable development model. To promote
the absolute decoupling of carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture, this paper employs the decoup-
ling model and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition model. It calculates the decoupling index of freshwa-
ter aquaculture carbon emissions and economic growth in China from 2011 to 2021 at both the national and regional levels. The
study also analyzes the underlying reasons for the decoupling status among different provinces and explores the driving factors
of this decoupling state. The results showed that: ① At the macro level, freshwater aquaculture carbon emission in China exhib-
ited an initial increase, followed by a decrease, and then an increase again during the study period. The coupling relationship
between carbon emissions and economic growth in freshwater aquaculture remained relatively stable. ② At the regional level,
the coupling relationship was categorized into four types, with significant differences observed among provinces. ③ In terms of
influencing factors, production efficiency and labor intensity had a positive effect on reducing carbon emissions in freshwater
aquaculture, while economic development intensity and industrial structure contributed to increased carbon emissions. The
research also found that the coupling relationship between freshwater aquaculture carbon emissions and economic growth was
unbalanced. Economic intensity is the primary driver of increased carbon emissions, and improving production efficiency and
labor intensity can help enhance its coupling relationship. This paper provides a basis and reference for the formulating carbon
emission reduction policies in freshwater aquaculture. It holds significant practical importance for promoting the coordinated
development of freshwater aquaculture ecology and economy, accelerating industrial transformation, and contributing to the
achievement of China's "dual carbon" goals.

Key words: freshwater aquaculture; carbon emissions; economic growth; Tapio decoupling; LMDI model
Corresponding author: WU Daqing. E-mail: dqwu@shou.edu.cn
Funding projects: Sub-theme of the Major Project of the National Social Science Council, Research on Development Poten-
tial of Deep Blue Fishery Industry under Climate Change (21 & ZD100); China Agriculture Research System of MOF and
MARA (CARS-47-G29); Shanghai Philosophy and Social Science Planning Project “Optimization of O2O Decision Making of
Fresh Food E-commerce under New Retail Mode” (2020EGL011)

中国水产学会主办 sponsored by China Society of Fisheries https://www.china-fishery.cn
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