Page 79 - 《高原气象》2025年第6期

6 期 张 璇等：基于SWAT+模型的黑河上游山区水文要素变化模拟与预测 1487

Simulation and Prediction of Hydrological Element Change in the

Upper Reaches of the Heihe River based on SWAT+ Model

2， 3
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ZHANG Xuan ， ZHU Rui ， YIN Zhenliang ， CHEN Zexia ， FANG Chunshuang ， LI Lejie 1
（1. Faculty of Geomatics， Lanzhou Jiaotong University / National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and
Applications for National Geographic State Monitoring / Key Laboratory of Science and Technology in Surveying & Mapping，
Gansu Province， Lanzhou 730070， Gansu， China；
2. National Glacier， Frozen Soil， and Desert Science Data Center / Key Laboratory of Ecological Security and Sustainable
Development in Arid Areas， Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，
Chinese Academy of Sciences， Lanzhou 730000， Gansu， China；
3. College of Safety and Environmental Engineering， Shandong University of Science and Technology，
Qingdao 266590， Shandong， China）

Abstract： In the context of global warming， it is of great significance to clarify the change characteristics and
trends of hydrological elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins to ensure water resource security.
In this study， the spatiotemporal variation of hydrological elements under four scenarios， SSP1-2. 6， SSP2-4. 5，
SSP3-7. 0 and SSP5-8. 5， was predicted with the SWAT model and the collective average data of five global cli‐
mate models in CMIP6. The results showed that： （1） The evaluation coefficient of the SWAT model was higher
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in the calibration period （NSE=0. 92， R =0. 93， PBIAS=-7. 09%） and validation period （NSE=0. 89， R =0. 91，
PBIAS=4. 74%）， indicating that SWAT had good applicability in the simulation of runoff in the upper reaches of
the Heihe River Basin.（2） Under the four scenarios， the runoff from the mountains in the future will increase by
12. 2%， 8. 1%， 10. 4% and 19. 2% respectively compared with the base period， and the runoff will increase sig‐
nificantly in autumn and winter. In the near and far future， the increase in the average total water yield in the basin
is between 6. 2~25. 4 mm （22. 2~35. 7 mm）， and the increase in the average underground flow is 1. 6~7. 4 mm
（7. 4~12. 1 mm）， and the increase of each hydrological element is greater in the far future.（3） In terms of the
spatial distribution of hydrological elements， the spatial distribution of precipitation， evapotranspiration， surface
production and underground runoff increased from northwest to southeast， while the total water yield and lateral
flow were high in the middle and low in the north.（4） The spatial distribution pattern of the changes of each hy‐
drological element is quite different， and the spatial distribution difference of the change of hydrological ele‐
ments between different scenarios in the near future （2021 -2060） period is relatively small， and the difference
in the temporal and spatial distribution of the change in the far future （2061 -2100） is even greater. In conclu‐
sion， the SWAT model can better describe the temporal and spatial changes of hydrological processes and hydro‐
logical elements in the mountainous areas of inland river basins.
Key words： SWAT model； the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin； Climatic change； Runoff simulation pre‐
diction