Page 221 - 《高原气象》2025年第3期

3 期 黄克秀等：黑河上游高寒山区土壤水分模拟对Noah-MP模型参数化方案的敏感性评估 779

Sensitivity Analysis of Noah-MP Model Parameterization Schemes

for Soil Moisture Simulation in the High-Cold Region of the
Upper Heihe River Basin

4
HUANG Kexiu ， YOU Yuanhong 1， 2， 3* ， LU Yanyu ， HAO Ying ， WANG Zuo ， SUN Jing 1， 3
1， 3
1， 3
2
（1. College of Geography and Tourism， Anhui Normal University， Wuhu 241002， Anhui， China；
2. Anhui Province Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Satellite Remote Sensing，
Anhui Institute of Meteorological Sciences， Hefei 230031， Anhui， China；
3. Resource environment and geography， Information Engineering Anhui Province Engineering
Technology Research Center， Wuhu 241002， Anhui， China；
4. Huaihe River Basin Meteorological Center， Anhui Meteorological Bureau， Hefei， 230031， Anhui， China）

Abstract： In the context of climate change， accurately simulating soil moisture using land surface process mod‐
els holds significant importance for weather forecasting， agricultural production， and hydrological processes.
This study utilized meteorological observation data from the Arou site in the upper reaches of the Heihe River as
the driving data for the Noah-MP model to conduct soil moisture simulation experiments， aiming to assess the
soil moisture simulation performance of the Noah-MP model in the alpine mountainous area of the upper reaches
of the Heihe River. Without considering uncertainties in model parameters and driving data， arbitrary combina‐
tions of the parameterization schemes for different physical processes of the Noah-MP model were made. A soil
moisture multi-parameterization ensemble simulation experiment encompassing 17， 280 different combination
schemes was designed. The Natural Selection sensitivity analysis method was employed to analyze the sensitivity
of shallow soil moisture simulation results to the parameterization schemes and further quantify the uncertainty
range of the simulation results of the soil moisture multi-parameterization ensemble. The results of this research
indicate that the Noah-MP model can be applied to simulate soil moisture in the alpine mountainous area of the
upper reaches of the Heihe river basin. The model demonstrates relatively high accuracy in simulating shallow
soil moisture， and the simulated soil moisture change trends are generally consistent with the observed data. This
consistency suggests that the Noah-MP model is well-suited for capturing the dynamics of shallow soil moisture
in these regions. However， the simulation accuracy for deep soil moisture is relatively poor， with the simulated
soil moisture change trends showing considerable deviations from the observed data. This suggests that there are
still challenges in accurately modeling moisture dynamics at greater soil depths， potentially due to the complexi‐
ty of subsurface hydrological processes in cold and mountainous environments. The analysis also reveals that
shallow soil moisture simulation results are sensitive to the parameterization schemes of four physical processes：
supercooled liquid water in frozen soil， frozen soil permeability， partitioning precipitation into rainfall and snow‐
fall， and the first-layer snow or soil temperature time scheme. Among these， the parameterization scheme of fro‐
zen soil permeability is particularly sensitive， indicating that it plays a crucial role in determining the accuracy of
the simulation results. During the soil freeze-thaw cycle in the alpine mountainous area of the upper reaches of
the Heihe River， the simulation results of soil moisture during the freezing period showed increased sensitivity to
parameterization schemes， making the selection of the parameterization scheme for the soil freezing process the
main factor contributing to the uncertainty of the simulation results of the soil moisture multi-parameterization en‐
semble.
Key words： soil moisture； ensemble simulation； parameterization scheme sensitivity analysis