Page 193 - 《高原气象》2022年第6期

高 原 气 象 41 卷
1556

The Trend Analysis of Future Precipitation and Temperature in the

Mountainous Regions of Heihe Mainstream Based on
the CMIP6 Multi-Model

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CHEN Zexia ，ZHU Rui ，YIN Zhenliang ，WANG Lingge ，FANG Chunshuang ，LU Rui 1
2
（1. Faculty of Geomatics / National-Local Joint Engineering Research Center of Technologies and Applications for National
Geographic State Monitoring / Gansu Provincial Engineering Laboratory for National Geographic State Monitoring，
Lanzhou Jiaotong University，Lanzhou 730000，Gansu，China；
2. Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology of Inland River Basin，Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources，
Chinese Academy of Sciences，Lanzhou 730000，Gansu，China）
Abstract：The mountainous regions of Heihe mainstream in China，is one of the sensitive areas to response the
climate change，however，there are few studies on analyzing the possible variation under different climate sce‐
narios in this area. Based on the daily precipitation and mean temperature data from four national standard meteo‐
rological stations（which located in or around the study area）and seven climate model outputs from CMIP6，this
paper assesses the ability of the CMIP6 Multi-Model ensemble average data in simulation of precipitation and
temperature，which including bias correction and not. Furthermore，the predicted precipitation and temperature
evolution trends of four SSPs scenarios at different time scales are analyzed by quantitative analysis method. The
results show that：（1）The CMIP6 model data has different simulation deviations between precipitation and tem‐
perature，and overall，the performance of temperature simulation is better than that of precipitation. After bias
correction by MBC，the CMIP6 Multi-Model ensemble mean data can accurately simulate the spatial-temporal
characteristics and trends of actual precipitation and temperature. Therefore，it can be considered that the Multi-
Model ensemble mean data of CMIP6 with MBC correction can reflect the future climate change trend in study
area.（2）Existing differences vary among precipitation and temperature change in the mountainous regions of
Heihe mainstream at different time scales. On the seasonal scale，precipitation increases significantly in winter
and spring，and temperature increases in spring and autumn. On the annual scale，both future precipitation and
temperature show an increasing trend with time，and the trend becomes more significant with increasing radiate
forcing of the scenario. On the periods scale，annual precipitation and mean annual temperature increase less in
the near to medium period，but more in the medium to far period.（3）At the spatial scale，both precipitation and
temperature in the mountainous regions of Heihe mainstream present generally increasing trend from west to east
and，there is more rain and higher temperature in the east area than west，so the phenomenon of warmer and wet‐
ter in spring will be more obvious in the eastern area than the west. As the climate continues to humidifier and
warmer，the possibility of anomalous precipitation and temperature events are likely to increase in the future in
the mountainous regions of Heihe mainstream. The extreme climate phenomenon，mainly characterized as the
precipitation exploded and the temperature sharply fell，which show a spatial distribution of less in west and
more in east.
Key words：The mountainous regions of Heihe mainstream；CMIP6；multi-model ensemble mean data；precipi‐
tation and temperature changes