Page 247 - 《高原气象》2026年第2期

2 期 张文韬等：印太海温异常对中国冬季降水变化的调控关系 547

Modulation of Indian and Pacific Ocean Temperature Anomalies
to Winter Precipitation of China

2
ZHANG Wentao ， BO Yue ， LI Xiaolan ， SHI Hongxia ， WANG Chenghai 1
1
4
3
（1. key Laboratory of Arid Climate Resource and Environment of Gansu Province， School of Atmospheric Sciences
Lanzhou University， Lan Zhou 730000， Gansu， China；
2. Meteorological Bureau of Yantai Economic Development Zone， Yantai 264003， Shandong， China；
3. Climate Centre of Sichuan Province， Chengdu 610072， Sichuan， China；
4. School of Atmospheric Sciences， Chengdu University of Information Technology， Chengdu 610225， Sichuan， China）
Abstract： This paper analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of winter precipitation variability in China
and its relationship with SST anomalies in the Indian and Pacific Oceans using precipitation data observed at me‐
teorological stations from 1961 to 2021， ERA5 reanalysis data and SST data. The results show that from 1961 to
2021， winter precipitation in the southeastern coastal areas of China， where the interannual variability of winter
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precipitation is the largest， has an increasing trend ［6. 7 mm·（10a）］. The interannual variability of winter pre‐
cipitation in the lower reaches of the Yangtze River is second， but the increase in precipitation is the most signifi‐
cant ［9. 6 mm·（10a）］. The increase rates of winter precipitation in these two regions are higher than the nation‐
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al average ［1. 5 mm·（10a）］. Winter precipitation in China is closely related to SST anomalies in the Indo-Pacif‐
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ic. Specifically， SST anomalies in the Equatorial Central and Eastern Pacific （ECEP） and the Indian Ocean （IO）
both have a significant lead positive correlation with winter precipitation in China， but their spatial distribution is
different. The ECEP SST anomalies in summer and autumn are significantly positively correlated with winter pre‐
cipitation in the southeastern coastal areas of China， and the IO SST anomalies in winter enhance the positive
correlation between precipitation in the southeastern coastal areas of China and the ECEP SST anomalies. The
positive correlation between the IO SST anomalies and winter precipitation in the southeastern coastal areas only
appears in autumn， while the positive correlation with winter precipitation in northern China already appears in
spring. The impact of the winter IO SST anomalies on winter precipitation in northern China is independent of
the ECEP SST. The different evolutions of the ECEP SST anomalies in summer and autumn， that is， the different
evolutions of El Niño and La Niña， have different effects on China's winter precipitation. If the summer El Niño
continues to autumn， China's winter precipitation is higher in 78% of the years； if La Niña appears and develops
in autumn， China's winter precipitation is lower in 83% of the years. The La Niña events that occur in summer
and continue to autumn and the El Niño events that occur in autumn and continue to winter have weak indicative
significance for China's winter precipitation. In the persistent El Niño （developing La Niña）， the 850 hPa circula‐
tion of ECEP is characterized by abnormal easterly （westerly） winds， which stimulates abnormal cyclonic （anti‐
cyclonic） circulation in the South China Sea. The southeastern coast of China is affected by abnormal southwest‐
erly （northeasterly） winds， and the water vapor from the South China Sea is abnormally more （less）. The water
vapor is characterized by convergence （divergence） anomalies， and the precipitation in the region is more
（less）. The IO SST anomaly stimulates the abnormal circulation in the northwest Pacific， affects the winter circu‐
lation system north of China and the water vapor transported from east to west， and thus regulates China's winter
precipitation. Therefore， the prediction of China's winter precipitation needs to comprehensively consider the
ECEP SST anomaly and the IO SST anomaly， especially the evolution of the SST in the equatorial central and
eastern Pacific in summer and autumn.
Key words： winter precipitation； spatiotemporal variation； Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature signals； El
Niño； La Niña