Page 166 - 《高原气象》2025年第5期

高 原 气 象 44 卷
1284

Variability of Anticyclone Activity and Temperature Anomaly Linkages in

the Siberian Region under a Scenario of Rapid Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

XIA Ping ， LU Chuhan ， HUANG Dingan ， CHEN Riheng ， WANG Rui 4
1
2
3
2
（1. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster， Ministry of Education， Nanjing University of Information Science
and Technology， Nanjing 210044， Jiangsu， China；
2. Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Carbon Source and Sink， China Meteorological Administration （ECSS-CMA），
Wuxi University， Wuxi 214063， Jiangsu， China；
3. Sanming Meteorological Bureau， Sanming 365000， Fujian， China；
4. Shanghai Meteorological Service Center， Shanghai 200030， China）

Abstract： The variability of Arctic sea ice is closely linked to anomalous winter temperature changes over the
Eurasian continent， while the frequent activity of winter cold high-pressure systems directly influences tempera‐
ture reductions in Siberia and East Asia. In the context of "Arctic amplification" and projected Arctic sea ice re‐
treat scenarios， it is worth delving into how near-surface anticyclone activity in Siberia will change. This study
utilizes a Mask R-CNN anticyclone objective identification algorithm based on deep learning to identify winter
synoptic-scale anticyclones over the Eurasian continent. It further investigates the potential impacts and mecha‐
nisms of anomalous autumn sea ice changes on anticyclone and cold air activities under the backdrop of rapid fu‐
ture Arctic sea ice retreat， using data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts （EC‐
MWF） ERA5 reanalysis， the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration （NOAA） OISST V2. 1 daily
sea ice concentration dataset， and outputs from the MIROC6 model. The results indicate that the sea ice index in
the Barents-Kara Sea （BKS） region declined during autumn from 1981 to 2022， accompanied by significant tem‐
perature drops in the mid-to-high latitudes of the Eurasian continent， particularly in Siberia， where anomalous
accumulations of cold air mass occurred， and the cold air mass carried by anticyclone activity increased. Utiliz‐
ing model data from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project （PAMIP）， the study statistically an‐
alyzed the variability of anticyclone activity over the Eurasian continent under scenarios of reduced Arctic sea ice
in the future. It was found that under conditions of sea ice reduction， Siberia is one of the main regions influenc‐
ing the formation and dissipation of anticyclones over the Eurasian continent. Anticyclones in this region exhibit
local activity characteristics， significantly contributing to the quasi-stationary Siberian cold high and the accumu‐
lation of cold air in the cold pool region. Temperatures increased along the northern edge of the Eurasian conti‐
nent but significantly decreased at mid-latitudes， accompanied by an increase in extremely cold days across most
of the Eurasian continent. Further research revealed that autumn BKS sea ice conditions can serve as a precursor
factor influencing subsequent winter anticyclone activity and temperature anomalies. The sea ice conditions in
this region result in a significant reduction in the meridional gradient of regional potential vorticity， thereby in‐
creasing the frequency of blocking events in the upstream Eastern European Plain， directing cold air to build up
over Siberia. This favors the enhancement of anticyclone activity and the transport of cold air， exacerbating the
winter cold trend in East Asia.
Key words： anticyclones； cold air quality； Siberian cold core area； Barents Sea autumn sea ice； objective iden‐
tification