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Evaluation and Projection of Climate Change in
Southwest China Using CMIP6 Models

YANG Mingxin ，XIAO Tiangui ，LI Yong ，HU Tao 1
1，2
1，2
2
（1. Chengdu University of Information Technology，Chengdu 610225，Sichuan，China；
2. National Meteorological Centre，Beijing 100081，China）
Abstract：Based on temperature and precipitation data to evaluate the ability of 24 models of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project Phase 6（CMIP6）and multi-model ensemble（MME）to simulate summer climate change
in Southwest China，and projected the future climate change characteristics Summer Climate Characteristics in
Southwest China under four scenarios（SSP1-2. 6，SSP2-4. 5，SSP3-7. 0，and SSP5-8. 5）based on the best
multi-model ensemble（BMME）. The results showed that：（1）CESM2-WACCM，EC-Earth3，CMCC-CM2-
SR5，GFDL-ESM4，TaiESM1，and MPI-ESM1-2-HR have better performance in simulating summer tempera‐
tures in the southwest region；INM-CM4-8，KACE-1-0-G，ACCESS-CM2，NorESM2- LM，EC-Earth3，and
ACCESS-ESM1-5 have better simulation performance for precipitation.（2）Both MME and BMME can repro‐
duce the spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation in Southwest China summer，and BMME signifi‐
cantly outperforms MME in the simulation of temperature and precipitation，especially in the simulation of inter‐
annual variability of precipitation. However，the CMIP6 models still overestimate precipitation in southeastern
Tibet.（3）In the future climate prediction，the temperature in Southwest China will continue to increase，and
show a more obvious difference in the increase of the strong north and weak south.（4）In the middle and late
21st century，the precipitation in western Tibet will be significantly enhanced，and the increase of precipitation
in the late period can be more than 66% under the SSP5-8. 5 scenario.
Key words：Southwest China；climate change；CMIP6；evaluation and projection