Page 95 - 《高原气象》2021年第5期

高 原 气 象 40 卷
1056

Temporal and Spatial Variations of Extreme Precipitation in

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor

CHEN Jinyu ，TAO Hui ，LIU Jinping ，ZHAI Jianqing ，SU Buda ，JIANG Tong 5
1，2
1
4
5
3
（1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology，Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography，Chinese Academy
of Sciences，Urumqi 830011，Xinjiang，China；
2. University of Chinese Academy of Science，Beijing 100049，China；
3. College of Surveying and Geo-informatics，North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power，
Zhengzhou 450046，Henan，China；
4. National Climate Center，China Meteorological Administration，Beijing 100081，China；
5. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters，Institute for Disaster Risk Management，
School of Geographical Sciences，Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology，Nanjing 210044，Jiangsu，China）

Abstract：Based on the observed daily precipitation from 1961 to 2015 in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
（CPEC），the spatial interpolation software ANUSPLIN was used to grid the observations. An improved percen‐
tile method was used to calculate the extreme precipitation threshold，while the spatial and temporal distribution
characteristics of the extreme precipitation amounts，intensities and frequencies were also analyzed in the CPEC
region. Furthermore，a generalized extreme distribution method was used to estimate the return period of extreme
precipitation in the study area. Results revealed that：（1）trends of extreme precipitation and the number of days
of extreme precipitation had non-significant increasing trend，whereas the time trend of extreme precipitation in‐
tensity was stable.（2）The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation and extreme precipitation threshold in the
study area manifested similar characteristics，while the spatial distribution of extreme precipitation frequencies
was more uniform and showed a "southwest low-northeast high" step-like distribution；however areas with the
highest extreme precipitation intensities were mainly concentrated in the south of Sindh province and 35° N，
reaching over 50 mm·d .（3）The spatial distribution of different return periods indicated that extreme precipita‐
-1
tion exhibited a strong regional pattern，with the range of high return levels in the 35°N region gradually decreas‐
ing as the return period increases，and the region of high return levels can be detected in the 30°N region with the
encounter of 25 a，and continues to increase in the range of the region with the return period of 50 a.
Key words：China-Pakistan Economic Corridor（CPEC）；extreme precipitation；temporal and spatial variability
characteristics；generalized extreme distribution；return period