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Evaluation on Simulation of the Inter-decadal Variation Characteristics
of the Stratospheric Polar Vortex Boundary in the Northern
Hemisphere by NECP CFSv2

LIU Yajing ，WEI Zhigang ，CHEN Guangyu ，LIU Yujia 1
1
2
1
（1. State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology，Faculty of Geographical Science，
Beijing Normal University，Beijing 100875，China；
2. Key Laboratory of Wind Power Technology of Zhejiang Province，Zhejiang Windey
Company Limited，Hangzhou 310012，Zhejiang，China）
Abstract：By using the ERA-I，the NECP CFSR reanalysis data and the CFSv2 of NECP reforecasts and fore‐
casts data，the inter-decadal variations of the stratospheric polar vortex boundary in the northern hemisphere
since the 1980s are analyzed，the ability of the CFSv2 to simulate the polar vortex boundary is evaluated. Results
show that，from 1980 to 2017，the Arctic polar vortex retreats northward in North American and expands south‐
ward in Eurasia in winter，but the polar vortex expands in North America and retreats in Europe in autumn. The
polar vortex expands obviously from the 1980s to the 2000s and retreats in the 2010s in Asia. In winter，the re‐
traction of the polar vortex occurs mainly in the 1990s in North America，but the expansion of the polar vortex
occurs mainly in the 2000s in Europe and in the 1990s in Asia. In autumn，the southern expansion of the polar
vortex boundary in North America is mainly in the 1990s，the retraction of polar vortexes in Eurasia occurs in the
2010s，and the retraction in Western Europe is the most obvious. The overall trend of the winter polar vortex
boundary and area simulated by CFSv2 is consistent with the ERA-I data in the 1980s-2010s，especially for the
trend of expansion in North America and Asia in the 2010s. However，the boundary of the polar vortex simulated
by CFSv2 is more to the east，and more to the south in the 2010s in North America. The boundary of the polar
vortex simulated by CFSv2 is north in the 1990s and south in the 2010s in Europe. The expansions of Asia polar
vortex boundary in the 1990s and 2000s in Asia cannot be simulated. In autumn，the simulation abilities of
CFSv2 on the boundary positions and areas are poor than that in the winter，the simulations on the overall trend
of polar vortex boundary and area variation are poor. The North American polar vortex boundaries simulated by
CFSv2 are consistent with the ones of the ERA-I data in 1990s-2010s，but the range of expansion is larger in the
1990s. The retraction of the polar vortex boundary is mainly in the 2000s from CFSv2 while in the 2010s from
ERA-I in Europe. The polar vortex boundary simulated by CFSv2 is consistent in the 1990s but exists more errors
in the 2000s-2010s with the one of the ERA-I data in Asia.
Key words：Polar vortex；boundary；simulation；evaluation