Page 192 - 《爆炸与冲击》2026年第10期

第 46 卷 第 10 期 爆 炸 与 冲 击 Vol. 46, No. 10
2026 年 10 月 EXPLOSION AND SHOCK WAVES Oct., 2026

DOI：10.11883/bzycj-2025-0384

基于开源信息融合的公共安全爆炸事故分析方法 *

李军润 ，张中海 ，徐恒威 ，吕 晓 ，卢永刚 ，黄 辉 3
1
2
1
1
1
（1. 中国工程物理研究院总体工程研究所，四川 绵阳 621999；
2. 西南科技大学土木工程与建筑学院，四川 绵阳 621010；
3. 中国工程物理研究院，四川 绵阳 621999）
摘要： 为快速、准确评估爆炸事故的影响范围和损伤程度，制定科学合理的应急响应策略，提出了一种基于开源
信息融合的公共安全爆炸事故分析方法。进一步，针对山东高密“5·27”化工车间爆炸事故，快速构建了事故分析逻
辑链条，即：基于开源信息获取爆炸发生、冲击波传播、爆炸后厂区和远区建筑结构损伤破坏等重要信息；基于建筑结
构毁伤判据和冲击波传播规律，反演爆源位置和爆炸当量，并分析事故发生原因；基于数值仿真方法，为工业厂房的安
全防护提供依据。结果表明：爆源位于 1 号硝化装置，爆炸等效 TNT 当量约为 12 000 kg，与基于现场勘察的调查结果
一致，验证了该方法的有效性和准确性；此次事故主要原因是由于该公司实际生产负荷超出设计标准，设备长期处于
满负荷运行状态，且长期忽视安全联锁系统；生产厂区应从严控爆炸危险物存量、总平面分区隔离、防殉爆安全管控、
重点涉爆装置外围防护 4 个方面加强建筑抗爆性能，降低爆炸事故造成的人员、设备损伤，缩小毁伤范围。
关键词： 爆炸事故；开源信息；事故反演；事故原因分析；安全防护
中图分类号： O389; TU375 国标学科代码： 13035 文献标志码： A

An open-source information fusion-based analysis method
for public safety explosion accidents

1
2
1
1
1
LI Junrun , ZHANG Zhonghai , XU Hengwei , LYU Xiao , LU Yonggang , HUANG Hui 3
（1. Institute of Systems of Engineering, China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999, Sichuan, China;
2. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest University of Science and Technology,
Mianyang 621010, Sichuan, China;
3. China Academy of Engineering Physics, Mianyang 621999, Sichuan, China）

Abstract: Following an explosion accident, a public safety explosion accident analysis method based on open-source
information fusion was proposed to quickly and accurately assess the scope and severity of the accident's impact and to
formulate a scientific and reasonable emergency response strategy. Furthermore, regarding the May 27 chemical plant
explosion accident in Gaomi, Shandong, a logical chain for accident analysis was rapidly constructed. Specifically, open-source
information was used to obtain critical details such as the explosion generation, the shock waves propagation, and structural
damage to buildings in both the plant area and far field. Based on criteria for structural damage and the laws of shockwave
propagation, the explosion source location and TNT equivalent were reverse-calculated, and the cause of the accident
was analyzed. Numerical simulations provided key evidence for improving safety protection in industrial plants. The results
indicate that the explosion source was located at the No.1 nitration device, with a TNT equivalent of approximately 12 000 kg
TNT, consistent with the conclusion based on field investigation, thereby verifying the effectiveness and accuracy of this
method. The main causes of the accident were identified as the company's actual production load exceeding design standards,

* 收稿日期： 2025-11-27；修回日期： 2026-07-07
第一作者： 李军润（1997－ ），男，博士，lijunrun22@gscape.ac.cn
通信作者： 卢永刚（1973－ ），男，博士，研究员，lygcaep@263.net

105901-1